Myanmar earthquake on 28th March which sent tremors to adjoining Thailand and China’s Yunnan shocked the region due to its high magnitude of 7.7 even though the region had no such occurence in the last 95 years. Its epicentre at the Sagaing Region in Myanmar was close to Mandalay,the second largest city of Myanmar and the capital city Naypyidaw. Such a devastating earthquake which has come after almost 95 years has wreaked the economy of Myanmar on a very large scale and for a much longer time to come. Thailand is gradually recuperating from the shock, losses and damages.China did not report any loss except a few minor physical ones. A few questions are looking for answers:
- What causes earthquakes (EQ)? Earth has a very thin layer of land which is like a sheath or a rind over the flesh of a very ripe fruit. It slides smoothly in various movements as everything inside the earth is water. This upper layer of earth is split into sections called tectonic plates which move alongside or side by side horizontally which creates EQs. Myanmar is geologically and seismically the most active area as convergence of four major tectonic plates (Eurasian, Indian, Sunda and Burma Plates) occurs beneath it. The Himalayas were formed by the collision of Eurasian and the Indian plates whereas Tsunami occurred due to the Indian Plate moving horizontally under the Burma plate. Some plates move away from each other causing others to slither away. This builds faults and when two tectonic plates move past each other, friction and tension together may cause shallow EQs as are happening in India in recent months. One needs to know that the Indian and the Eurasian plates are still active and moving at a pace of 5 cms per year.
The Sagaing Fault ranges to 1200Kms and caused a ‘Strike Slip’EQ or EQ caused by sideways rubbing of plates against each other. The plate movements cannot be stopped but by deciphering he prospective direction, nature and speed of their movements some forecasting towards preparedness against earthquakes is definitely possible. The strange incident of only one building falling in Bangkok suggests the effect of soft soil of Thailand which as experts say, slows down the movement of tectonic plates but makes the impact more focused and bigger. - What is the impact of Myanmar EQ on country’s economy and regional developmental strategies? Myanmar is a low income country which has faced an economic crisis since the 2021 Coup. Its population is 5.41 crores(or 54million 100 thousand in 2023) out of which 3 m is displaced and 1m 500 thousands homeless. Myanmar is 143rd in the overall Prosperity Index rankings which, as an obvious outcome of almost 50% population living below the national poverty line of 1590 Kyats or INR 65 or 76 cents. Since the civil war started, the share of Myanmar’s population living in poverty has doubled while the health and other critical infrastructure has been going down. At a time when the government agencies have almost lost control of governance in the country, the EQ strikes. So in most places the local groups have been trying their best to save their kith and kin themselves. In Mandalay the Catholic Relief Services extended help to 2m people lying on streets after the EQ. Near the Errawaddy river most rescue operations are still being done by small self organized residents groups. There is no drinking water, no training or availability of any other life sustaining necessary equipment to help them out. In the last three years the number of doctors, dispensaries and hospital staff has been fast shrinking. WHO ranks Myanmar amongst the worst nations in healthcare access. With such a background Myanmar’s economy may never be able to bounce back unless fed by urgent relief funds from global society and UNDRR.
- Challenges to Relief /Rescue Teams: In both Myanmar and Thailand the ‘comprehensive safety standards’ for buildings has been weak. While Thailand evolved from a non-existent earthquake resistant building norm till 2009, to improved standards of today yet not more than 10 percent buildings are found to be earthquake resistant. Myanmar buildings provide no data but they do not cater to earthquake resistant regulations. The country’s buckled roads, broken bridges, lack of communication infrastructure and a civil war torn fabric where people are scraping bare essentials, make it impossible for relief and rescue workers to reach out to affected people. There is no record, data and local mapping to identify disability, seniors, diseased and sick languishing or dead somewhere. The government in exile declared that it will collaborate and cooperate with the UN Agencies and try to work with the NGOs and so relief from India, Malaysia, Singapore, Russia and China has started pouring in. India has rushed critical supplies as part of Humanitarian Assistance and disaster Relief (HADR) operations in several sorties of its Air Force planes in a single day. The Indian Army’s 50(I) Para Brigade has already been deployed to manage rescue operations and help in unloading and distribution of 15 tonnes of relief materials. This has been given the name of Operation Brahma. Singapore has sent a big team of trained rescue dogs as no human capacity can identify and save people from under the rubble. Myanmar and Thailand are late entries to BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) nonetheless, are prioritized in relief provisions by regional members. Besides, International Red Cross and OCHA office of UN has already sent USD 115M to Myanmar Red Cross Society.
- Early Warning Systems(EWS) and AI Applications: Thailand has the Tsunami focus for EWS and Myanmar being war torn has diverted its attention away from the intricacies of disaster management. Earthquake forecasting is provided through Early Earthquake Warning (EEW) Systems. Use of AI has become a necessity in EEW since a very large amount of seismic data running through many years and varieties of situations is beyond human capacity to analyze in the short span of few minutes that a pre-earthquake situation provides.This is done by building machine models which work faster, more accurately, can store a vast amount of seismic data incorporating their patterns, anomalies and deviations. The EEW uses seismicsensors to integrate data in a comparative manner so that earth quake data is distinguished from other ground vibrations.The number of fake EEW alerts are increasing to question EEW systems. There are many agencies which are currently providing EEWS. US Geological Survey, Taiwan National Centre for Research on Earth Quake Engineering (NCREE) and Seismic AI as an Israel startup at Tel Aviv. This needs further research across the fault line areas to make use of EEW more appropriate and understandable. The National Earth Quake Information Centre of USA found around 55 EQs a day or roughly 20 thousand per year. This calls for a more serious work needed to provide adequate safety evacuation of people before the EQ strikes.
- Animals Killed in Myanmar-Thailand Earth Quake : So far no record of animals can be given but experience from other disasters across the world suggest that the toll of companion animals is always very high whether its floods, Tsunami , hurricane or an earthquake. The Fukushima Daiichi farmers had protested ‘Give us back our way of living,Give us back our land of living’ against the plants policy which changed much of what they valued in life. When Tsunami struck, they were forced to evacuate without their animals. With broken hearts they left behind 11,600 dogs and 13,400 cats their companions. The area was a thriving dairy industry but they were not allowed to take their 3,500 cattle, 30,000 pigs and 6,30,000 poultry. During the Katrina Hurricane in USA,the heartrending Snowball story of a little boy refusing to leave behind his pet dog was shown on a TV Channel forcing the government to pass the Pets Evacuation and Transportation Standards Act of 2006. Any disaster management act without any such provision is incomplete, unethical and inequitable. Human beings as part of the ecosystem, have primordial responsibility towards giving animals a right to life with dignity and respect.
Conclusion:
Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG) , a military wing of the exiled National Unity Government has declared unilateral partial ceasefire for two weeks after which the fight would be resumed. This explains that human nature need to be harnessed appropriately so that in current times of climate change and fast shifting ecological situations, many operational models of governance may have to provide passage to introspective thinking for mitigating disasters and emerging safe out of every disaster.
